Donald Trump was an historically unpopular president. His antics with regard to the virus didn’t help much. Based on history and the polls, the GOP should have been destroyed in 2020. It didn’t happen; the GOP actually gained seats in the House. Biden’s poll numbers are similarly bad today; what, if anything, does that mean for 2022?
As in 2020, not as much as you might think. The blue base will be motivated to vote against the reds on culture war issues–particularly abortion. In spite of his troubles, Biden still polls ahead of Trump, whose association with the GOP hasn’t diminished a bit. The playing field for the Senate in 2022 is tilted towards the Democrats. Finally, increasing polarization creates a floor as well as a ceiling for both parties. It will be just as difficult to create a red wave as it was a blue one.