While political violence was endemic in Japan prior to World War II, the country has been remarkably peaceful ever since. Guns are rare, and gun deaths are even more rare. If you were to predict the location of an assassination in 2022, therefore, Japan is about the last place you would pick.
America, on the other hand, is awash in guns. The right practically worships them. Worse, its leaders are openly embracing the notion that liberals are the enemy and must be crushed by all means necessary. The left, on the other hand, still believes in a system that is increasingly stacked against it, but that is bound to change as it gets more frustrated. Political violence in this country, as a result, is practically inevitable.
In my opinion, it is more likely than not that some politically significant figure will be a target of gun violence in the next year or so. It may be a cultural, religious, legal, or business leader rather than a politician per se, but the attack will have serious ramifications. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.