I had always assumed that Trump would wait as long as possible before making an announcement about his candidacy. That way, he could get more people to kiss his ring, and keep his options open. The NYT, however, has reported that an announcement could be imminent, which surprises me.
Maybe it shouldn’t. Announcing early has some clear advantages for Trump. It makes it easier for him to argue that any potential prosecutions are politically motivated. It gives him a larger megaphone with which to shape public impressions of the work of the January 6 committee. Anything that attracts attention is always welcome, of course, and he absolutely loves running for president (being president, not quite so much). Finally, and most importantly, it would mean that DeSantis could not blunder into running against him. Trump will be the presumptive nominee the minute he announces, and anyone who dares to take him on will be fully aware of the consequences.
For the GOP, an early announcement prior to the midterms would be a disaster. It would put Trump and January 6 in the foreground of the campaign, which is the last thing McConnell and McCarthy want. It will increase turnout among otherwise disaffected Democratic voters. It will also attract attention to Trump’s idiosyncratic views about Russia and Ukraine at the least appropriate time. For Trump, however, concerns about the welfare of the party will always take second place to the interests of the man in the mirror.
So what would Trump actually say on the stump? Even more importantly, how would he govern, if he wins? I will be addressing the likely events of a second Trump term throughout the week.