When you compare the first 18 months of Biden’s administration to the last years of the Trump regime, you are struck more by the amount of continuity than by the differences. The tone is completely changed, of course. But the following items were not, due to a lack of votes in Congress and a high level of concern about political blowback:
- Biden complied with Trump’s Afghanistan withdrawal agreement;
- The Trump tax cuts have not been repealed;
- Trump supported the 2021 stimulus;
- The Trump tariffs on China are still in effect; and
- Biden has not entered into a new agreement with Iran.
Where would we be today if Trump had actually remained in office? Inflation and unemployment would be at about the same levels, and our position in the Middle East would be roughly the same. The big difference, of course, is our willingness and ability to work with our partners in both Europe and Asia to contain China and Russia. Trump would have done his best to help Putin in Ukraine, and would have tried to take on the Chinese on his own.
Since Biden does not present an easy target for Trump’s identity politics gambit, and the man on golf cart has little interest in policy, his campaign is bound to be primarily about the “corrupt” establishment and the “rigged” 2020 election. He will grumble about inflation and falling markets, but say little about what he would do to improve matters. In short, it will be a campaign heavy on personality and owning the libs, and extremely light on any vision except of the man with the orange face in the mirror. Just like 2020.