Month: June 2022

Historically, Democratic candidates (e.g., Warren and Sanders) have viewed culture war issues as an annoying distraction–the product of false consciousness–from the real business at hand, which is redistributing wealth from plutocrats to working people. Given the widespread (if largely incorrect) perception that the economy is in freefall, that option will not be available in 2022. The Democrats will have to engage the GOP on its favorite turf.

How can that be done? Here are three principles to guide them:

1. GO ON THE ATTACK: If you want to motivate the base to get out and vote, don’t cower in the corner. That doesn’t motivate anyone.
2. MAXIMIZE POINTS ON WHICH THE BLUE TEAM IS UNITED: Use the liberal argument relating to discrimination against historically powerless groups instead of the woke argument that LGBTQ people are normal, which is not accepted by many left-leaning voters.
3. FIND THE WEDGE ISSUES FOR THE RIGHT: How many white Christian women think they should be forced to bear the child of a rapist? Let’s find out!

In short, spend lots of time talking about abortion, and as little time as possible defending the right of trans women to participate in sports.

With the conspicuous exception of “Defund the police,” red positions on culture war issues typically don’t have the support of a majority of Americans, if the polls are to be believed. Why then, does the GOP always pursue them, and why do they succeed?

Two words: geography and intensity. Bright blue culture war positions predominate in states like California, where rolling up huge majorities doesn’t help to win national elections. In addition, the GOP is relatively united behind the most extreme positions expressed by the reactionary plurality, while the Democrats are united only in their opposition to the GOP. Liberals and moderates (i.e., Biden voters, the majority of Democrats) have nearly the same degree of disdain for the woke Twitter left as conservatives and reactionaries. As a result, cultural issues are effectively wedge issues for the right.

To my knowledge, even our most militant right-wing chicken hawks (think John Bolton here) aren’t contending that NATO should openly enter the war and march on to Moscow. With that possibility excluded, there are three plausible acceptable military outcomes for the war:

1. Russia is completely expelled from Ukraine, as it existed prior to 2014;
2. Russian troops are thrown back to the line as it existed prior to the 2022 invasion; or
3. Russian troops remain in control of the land they have taken in the Donbas, but no more.

It is important to note that all three of these outcomes represent a massive strategic defeat for Putin. He has increased the size of NATO, shattered his economy, unified Ukraine against him, and destroyed the myth of overwhelming Russian military competence, all for some fairly useless land in Ukraine, for which he will now have to take responsibility. In that sense, even #3 would be a great victory for NATO.

That said, which of the outcomes makes the most sense? #1 would represent a complete military victory, and would best send the message that aggression doesn’t pay. It is the Dateline option: the bad guy gets his just desserts. Unfortunately, it is extremely unlikely without open NATO involvement in the war. The Ukrainians simply don’t have the men and the firepower, even with advanced NATO weapons, to make it happen, and if it did, Putin would probably escalate with WMD in a way that could cause World War III.

Option #2 is more plausible, still sends the message that aggression doesn’t pay, and doesn’t threaten a wider conflict, based on Putin’s behavior to date. Option #3 gives Putin a reasonable off-ramp, and limits the deaths and war damage within Ukraine, but doesn’t send the anti-aggression message as clearly as we would like.

In the final analysis, the shape of any settlement will depend on the attitude of the Ukrainians. Biden is right to give them the weapons they think they need to negotiate a reasonably acceptable peace, but not to threaten regime change or attacks within Russia’s borders.

Hurricane Agatha is currently pounding Mexico. Its remnants may reform into a new tropical storm after it passes into the Gulf of Mexico. If that occurs, the new storm will be named Alex.

It’s the perfect tropical event for 2022–a trans storm! Let’s hope it does less damage than a typical cisgender event.