I’m sure you remember the scene in “The Wizard of Oz” in which the Wicked Witch of the West writes “Surrender Dorothy” in the sky. Putin’s campaign in Ukraine is a bit like that. He has no choice; he doesn’t have the resources to occupy the country, so he has to break its will.
There were three possible ways to accomplish this. The first was by a lightning campaign with a big dose of political persuasion; the second was through shock and awe; and the third was by methodically destroying everything in the Donbas and imposing a sea blockade. The first two approaches have already failed; the fate of the third remains to be seen.
The introduction of longer-range American artillery to the battlefield will make dramatic Russian advances unlikely. The blockade presents different issues. I will discuss these tomorrow.