Imagine that you are Vladimir Putin. Your war in Ukraine has turned into a strategic disaster, but you are still gaining some ground there. What do you do now?
In broad terms, you have two choices:
- Stop the war when you think you have gained enough ground to credibly declare victory, and make a deal in which you keep some of your gains. Sanctions come off. You then take a few years to rebuild your shattered military and economy and wait for another, better opportunity. Maybe Trump will win in 2024 and change sides! You never know.
- Continue the slow, rolling devastation of eastern Ukraine and the blockade indefinitely, and hope the combination of the two will persuade the Ukrainians to surrender.
Which option is better? To me, making the deal is a no-brainer, particularly since the introduction of more advanced American weapons gives rise to the possibility that the Russians might actually lose, not gain, territory in the coming months. Putin didn’t take my advice on the wisdom of invading Ukraine in the first place, however, so it is doubtful that he will do it now.