It’s January 2023. The GOP has won narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate. The first order of business for the House, of course, is to please the base by voting for a national prohibition on abortion. The bill passes quickly and goes to the Senate.
McConnell is in a difficult spot. He knows he’s going to look like a hypocrite if he acquiesces to the repeal of the filibuster. His overriding priority, however, is to maintain party unity, so he’s willing to go along with the vast majority of his party even if he has to swallow his principles if the bill has a chance to become law. The problem is that the votes simply aren’t there to get the job done. Collins, Murkowski, and Manchin aren’t going to vote to repeal the filibuster, and Romney is on the fence. Furthermore, Biden clearly isn’t going to sign the bill even if it passes. It isn’t going to happen–at least, not now.
McConnell isn’t going to expose himself to allegations of bad faith unless he can actually accomplish something important to the base. Both the bill and filibuster reform consequently die quietly in the Senate. Real action won’t happen until 2025 at the earliest.