Notwithstanding its overwhelming advantages in men and firepower, the initial phases of the Soviet attack on Finland were a humiliating disaster. At one point, Hitler even offered to help. The Soviets made adjustments, however, and ultimately crushed the Finnish defenses. Finland didn’t completely lose its sovereignty, but it had to sign a painful peace treaty.
Obviously, this is the scenario that has to concern Ukraine’s friends, even after its initial successes. Thus far, however, it isn’t happening. There are two factors that distinguish this conflict from that one. First, Ukraine is far larger than Finland relative to its opponent; second, it is getting extensive assistance from NATO. The Finns didn’t get any help from anyone.
Will that be enough to dictate a different result? I would say yes, but we’ll see.