One possible outcome of the war in Ukraine is that the conflict just peters out, with no political settlement. That would look a lot like Korea. Who would lose the most under those circumstances?
It would be a disaster for Putin. He would have failed to accomplish any of his political objectives, he would have to continue to pay to keep his troops mobilized, sanctions on his economy would remain in place, Finland and Sweden would probably join NATO, and Europe would make more determined efforts to cut itself off from Russian oil and gas. Russia would become completely dependent on Chinese political, economic, and military assistance. All for a few worthless square miles of ground in the Donbas.
The bottom line here is that Putin needs a deal as soon as the situation on the ground would permit him to call himself a winner. Is he aware of that yet? He’s dumber than I thought if he isn’t.