This one should be a no-brainer. The French economy is in relatively good shape, particularly in light of the pandemic. Putin is an ally of Le Pen. What more do you need to know?
The problem is that populism is alive and well in France for the same reasons that it is here: animosity among residents of rural areas and decaying 19th century industrial areas towards more affluent knowledge workers and immigrants. In addition to that, Macron frequently comes across as being detached and indifferent. Jupiter didn’t have to present himself for re-election, but Macron does; he appears to forget that at times.
A Le Pen victory would be a disaster for France, the EU, and NATO, but a huge win for Putin. Let’s hope with all of our might that it doesn’t happen.