Launching an amphibious assault over 100 miles of ocean patrolled by the U.S. Navy is in no way comparable to just sending tanks plunging over the border, so Xi isn’t finding out that invading is harder than you think–he already knows that. That’s why an attack on Taiwan will involve missiles and a blockade, not an invasion.
Nevertheless, Ukraine has some useful lessons for Xi. He is finding that the West is more resolved and united than he probably thought. He is learning that he should be skeptical of any optimism from his intelligence and security people. He will know that he can’t control the images that go out all over the world; Taiwan isn’t Tibet. Finally, he will have noted that Chinese efforts at cyberwarfare will be opposed by volunteers all over the globe–not just the Americans and the Taiwanese.
In sum, waiting on events looks even better today than it did in January.