Assume the following conditions exist 30 days from now:
- Ukraine is completely occupied by Russian troops, who will stay there indefinitely.
- The urban areas of the country have been largely destroyed.
- There are millions of refugees.
- An insurgency has begun, along with acts of terrorism within Russia’s borders.
- The Russian economy is still struggling with the impacts of sanctions.
- The Russian military suffered tens of thousands of casualties during the war.
Who won? Not the Ukrainians, for obvious reasons. Not Russia, whose military has seriously underperformed and is now tied up in Ukraine, whose economy has collapsed, which faces a united and angry NATO, and which no longer even pretends to be a democratic state. Not Biden, even though he handled the crisis masterfully; the GOP is denouncing him as the man who lost Ukraine. Not China, which has been deterred from attacking Taiwan. Not the “New Right,” which has been discredited by its admiration for Putin.
It’s hard to find a winner here, but the best answer is . . . American hawks, who thought their chance to fight the USSR had evaporated when it collapsed. They’re back, baby! The defense budget is about to soar! Let the good times roll!