If I were Putin, and my principal objectives were to solidify my support at home and to divide NATO, I would be looking for the exit ramp right now. The potential costs of an invasion are greater than the benefits, and time is not on my side. The threat of a gas cutoff–my hole card with the EU– is less potent every day we get closer to spring.
I would make a deal with Macron or Scholz. The contents of the deal almost don’t matter. All I would need is a pretext I can use at home to declare victory. The result would be a rift between the Europeans and the Americans, and possibly some serious intra-EU strife between the French and Germans on the one hand and Poland and the Baltic States on the other. In addition, regardless of the agreement, I can turn the screws on Ukraine at any time in the future if I so desire.
But I’m not Putin, of course, so we’ll just have to wait and see. As for a potential American response, I will address that in a future post.