Month: January 2022

The Constitution was not written during one of our nation’s spasms of religious fervor, and most of the Founding Fathers were nominal Christians at best. Nevertheless, it was an era in which Christianity was taken seriously, and disputes between religious groups were a matter of considerable public importance. The large number of sects in this country made it completely impracticable to create a state religion. Hence, the Establishment Clause.

For over two centuries, it was assumed that the best way to avoid taking sides in religious disputes was to keep the government out of the religion business altogether. Establishment Clause jurisprudence reflects that assumption. Today’s Supreme Court pretty clearly does not accept that premise, however. Why not?

The Supreme Court appears to view the fundamental disagreement on religion in contemporary society as one between secular humanism on one hand and all types of religion on the other, not one between religious sects. I think you are going to see the Court increasingly making the argument that funding religious sects is acceptable because the alternative is making secular humanism (whatever that means) a kind of established religion. In other words, times and thought patterns have changed, so the interpretation of the Establishment Clause has to change, too.

The irony, of course, is that originalists absolutely reject this ahistorical approach when it works to the benefit of the cultural left. For the reactionaries on the Court, however, consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.

What do the two groups have in common? It isn’t just that they reject science, or that they accept the opinions of fellow internet morons over those of actual experts. No, the most important similarity is that they are supremely indifferent to the welfare of everyone around them. It’s all about them and their supposed rights; anything that happens to you and me, or even their own children, is acceptable collateral damage.

That makes them perfect Republicans, of course.

Texas prides itself on being the antithesis of California. It is using its lower housing costs to try to lure businesses and residents away from California, and having some success.

But Texas is not that far away from being a purple state. What happens if all of those blue state immigrants tip the scales and take the state out of the red category?

Be careful what you ask for, because you might get it.

Two Polish commentators argue in the NYT that the current regime resembles the intolerant right-wing authoritarian government that existed between 1925 and 1939. Are they right?

Yes, but the important thing to remember here is that the circumstances are far different. World War I brought all three of the powers that partitioned Poland to their knees, and the Poles defeated the Red Army before Warsaw in 1920; as a result, it was reasonable at the time to think that Poland could defend itself without much assistance. Today’s Polish government has no chance of protecting its borders from the Russians; it has to rely on its EU partners and NATO to keep it completely sovereign.

In short, the likelihood that the EU countries will agree to continue protecting Poland, while the latter ignores EU directives and hurls abuse at Brussels, is not great. The current regime, unlike the interwar version, is a beggar; it cannot be a chooser in the long run.

Here are the biggest issues we’ll face this year, with my predictions in parentheses:

1. Will the virus finally become endemic, like the flu, so we can get on with our lives? (Herd immunity is now a distant dream, due to the anti-vaxxers and our inability to vaccinate the rest of the world. We will, however, reach endemic status late in the year, although there won’t be a single dramatic point when that is realized.)
2. Will any of our outstanding foreign policy crises lead to war? (Russia does not invade Ukraine, and China does not attack Taiwan. Israel launches an air assault on Iran, with some material assistance from us. A threat of massive American retaliation limits the war to the Middle East.)
3. Will Biden and the Fed bring inflation under control without causing a recession? (The combination of tough talk, limited action, and improvements to the supply chain reduces the inflation rate significantly by Election Day without crushing the economy or the markets.)
4. Will the Democrats be wiped out in the election? (Intense polarization, improving conditions, and an electoral map that is more favorable in 2022 than most people think limit the blue team’s losses. The Senate stays status quo; the narrow Democratic majority in the House becomes a narrow GOP majority. Kevin McCarthy now has a big job on his hands.)
5. Will Trump announce he’s running for president after the election? (No. He won’t make his decision until 2023.)
6. Will some form of the BBB get through Congress? (A much smaller and more focused version of the bill passes. Progressives finally understand that most of their plans are pipe dreams and grab what they can get.)

As you can see, playing against type, I’m relatively optimistic about 2022. Happy New Year!