Don’t say I didn’t warn you: I predicted that Manchin would be the more powerful of the two Joes even before the inauguration.
Manchin would probably tell you that the electorate voted against Trump, but only for limited change, in 2020; his actions are consequently consistent with the public mandate. In a narrow, political sense, he is probably right. From a public policy perspective, however, his position is far more difficult to defend.
Manchin argues that: the BBB will cause inflation; the legislation is full of gimmicks that won’t really lower its cost; and that the increase in the budget deficit that will result is unacceptable. On inflation, he is just wrong; the additional annual increase in federal spending is a drop in the bucket, particularly when compared to the withdrawal of stimulus that will occur in the near future. On the budget gimmicks, he is right, but that is Sinema’s fault, not Biden’s; he needs to take that up with her. On the deficit, you can give him credit for being consistent, as he also voted against the Trump tax cuts; however, the legislation includes investments that will reduce the deficit, not increase it, in the long run, and the cost of financing the additional debt will be negligible in real terms as long as interest rates remain low.
If the BBB is truly dead, the worst impacts will be felt with climate change. Manchin appears to believe that the transition to a carbon neutral economy should be fairly slow, and driven by the private sector. Is he right? Tune in tomorrow for a discussion of that topic.