Trump and Netanyahu opted for “maximum pressure” in the hope of forcing regime change, or at least a complete reversal of policy, in Iran. We were told that sanctions would work, and were a viable alternative to war. This was, of course, a lie, and now the Israelis have to live with the consequences of it. The Iranians are much closer to a bomb than they ever were in the Obama years.
It does not appear, as of today, that Biden’s negotiations with the Iranians are going to succeed. What then? Here are the choices:
- America and Israel, notwithstanding decades of rhetoric to the contrary, learn to live with an Iranian bomb. Deterrence is the order of the day, just as it was with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
- Israel, possibly with American help, starts “cutting the grass” with the Iranian nuclear program. A low level war of indefinite duration looms.
- Israel and/or America annihilates Iran with a nuclear first strike. The problem disappears.
The weakness with #3, of course, is that it would normalize the use of nuclear weapons, to the benefit of the Russians, North Koreans, and other bad actors. Eliminating the short term problem only creates a much larger one in the future.
What this really does is tell you how lame nuclear weapons really are as a bargaining chip. If we do threaten the Iranians with nukes, they won’t take it seriously. That is why the most likely outcome is “cutting the grass.”