It was supposed to be Karl Rove’s masterstroke: the GOP would create a prescription drug benefit for seniors; seniors would be permanently grateful; and the GOP would enjoy a permanent majority as a result. It didn’t work. The voters knew the Democrats wanted a plan that was even more generous to seniors, and other, more pressing events intervened. The GOP was crushed in the 2008 elections.
On a similar note, Obamacare was a huge loser for the Democrats in 2010, as the media and the electorate focused on its flaws, not its benefits. But by 2018, the picture had changed. When the GOP presented a clear and present danger to Obamacare, the voters decided the program was well worth keeping, and the results of the midterms reflected their concerns.
What’s the message here? That the voters are initially skeptical of welfare state expansions, but resist any attempt to claw them back once they are in place. That has implications for the 2024 election. I will discuss that in my next post.