Assume, for purposes of argument, that the human capital bill doesn’t pass. Assume further that, for reasons that are mostly unrelated to government spending, inflation subsides before the 2022 elections, and the virus is under much better control. All of these assumptions are perfectly reasonable. How does it play out?
The window to make fundamental changes to the dollar store economy will be closed, of course. But the markets will be very happy, and workers will be able to pocket the wage gains the Great Resignation made possible. The economic argument against the Biden economy from both the right and the left will be pretty weak. In short, conditions may be much better than we think today, and the election results should reflect that.