Mitt Romney, a PBP, was the Republican nominee in 2012. Trump only had a plurality—not a majority—in the primaries in 2016. Today, however, the Reactionaries are a clear majority faction, and they have been radicalized. That was the great “accomplishment” of the last four years.
It is no longer permissible for a GOP politician to express doubt in public that Trump actually won the election. If Trump decides to run in 2024, will reactionary state and local politicians take the next logical step and vote to overturn a Biden victory?
The pressure put on them by the base will be enormous. It really depends on how many PBPs manage to get elected at the state level in 2022. Any place where Reactionaries represent a majority of legislators is a potential trouble spot, because they will probably be pledged to do whatever is necessary to assure a GOP victory regardless of the actual outcome of the election. If the Democrats and PBPs are a majority, however, the election is probably safe.
The bottom line is that 2024 is likely to result in either an irrevocably divided GOP, or a shattered nation, if Trump is the nominee.