Month: July 2021

You did everything right. You stayed home to protect yourself and others when it was required. You wore a mask, even though you hated it. You got vaccinated as soon as possible, with the expectation that your life would return to normal. Today, however, you are looking at a possible new mask mandate. Why?

You can thank the millions of anti-vaxxers, of course. They have a wide range of reasons for their abstinence, all of them stupid. They are threatening your quality of life for no good reason.

A disproportionate percentage of them are reactionaries, who like nothing better than to tell you that you aren’t a real American. They are perpetually angry at you. Maybe it is time to return the favor.

I have frequently referred to Donald Trump as a one-trick pony, because all he knows how to do is divide the country and mobilize his base. The 2020 election proved that there aren’t enough reactionary votes out there to win a national election, but he refuses to accept reality. Instead, he continues to try to fit the facts to his narrative.

In a similar vein, Mitch McConnell had success with his relentless obstruction campaign in 2009 and 2010, so will he try it again, under very different circumstances? Are we doomed to see debt ceiling crises and abortive legislative deals over and over again?

Based on the events of the last day or two, the answer is yes.

What is America? It’s a trick question; America is about becoming something, not being something. The country was conceived from the beginning as an agent of change. It constantly tears itself down and builds the biggest, newest, and shiniest of everything. It never stands still.

So how do you reconcile this concept of the nation that constantly reinvents itself with the worship of obsolete ideas and dying industries? You can’t.

Here’s what forty years of tax cuts and deregulation have given us: a billionaire space race! Are you not entertained!

What happens when the Democrats are powerless, and the political spectrum is effectively limited to Reactionaries and PBPs? That’s the question I raised about Texas late in 2019. The answer to the question tells us a great deal about the condition of the GOP on a national level.

In 2019, the conflict between the two factions–one supporting infrastructure spending, the other bathroom bills–seemed to have reached a stalemate. That is no longer true. The Reactionaries have gained complete control of the legislative process, and every plausible candidate for high state and federal office is running as far to the right as he reasonably can. As a result, we have an absurdly constructed abortion law relying totally on private enforcement, proposed new (and, based on the 2020 election results, completely unnecessary) legislation to suppress minority votes, and an attempt by the state to complete the border wall on its own.

This, of course, mirrors the state of the GOP nationally. Trump is above criticism, the riot was a peaceful event involving patriotic Americans, Biden is an illegitimate president, and the biggest civil rights struggle in this country involves the rights of people who refuse to be vaccinated. If you don’t agree with these propositions, you had better keep your mouth shut, or else you’ll wind up like Liz Cheney.

The WaPo has reported that an Israeli software firm, with the apparent approval of the government, sold a program called Pegasus to a number of foreign governments, whose characters range from the increasingly illiberal to the brutally thuggish. These regimes then used the program to spy on their opponents, including journalists viewed as being hostile. The company denies any wrongdoing.

My question is, do you find it difficult to believe that Netanyahu would license this kind of anti-democratic activity? And is it impossible to imagine that Trump would do the same thing, and even use the program on his own domestic opponents?

Of course not. That’s who they are.

If you’re a reactionary, the template is the Revolutionary War. You’re a red, white, and blue patriot doing battle with an oppressive, overreaching central government that taxes and spends too much and actively opposes your values. It has to be overthrown by any means necessary, including insurrection. If it includes a second Tea Party, so be it.

If you’re on the left, it’s the Civil War. A majority with history on its side is doing battle with a reactionary white cultural minority that unapologetically oppresses people of color and sexual minorities and threatens liberal democracy to keep its hands on power. What the country needs is a crushing victory over the bigots and a Second Reconstruction–this time, a successful one.

Which one is more accurate? You decide.

Last week, Thomas Edsall wrote a column in the NYT addressing the question of which side was the aggressor in the culture wars. As usual, the column was long, ponderous, full of quotes, and inconclusive. Let’s answer his question: who is at fault here?

It depends on the arena. In the cultural and legal fields, the left is clearly the aggressor. It is trying to push the envelope and redefine norms; the right is simply trying to hold the line. The problem, however, is that the right has given up trying to rebut the left’s claims in its preferred forum, and is fighting the battle purely in the political arena. In the days when the PBPs had control of the GOP, this was done primarily for the cynical purpose of generating votes for business tax cuts and deregulation. Today, however, the Reactionaries are behind the wheel, and winning the culture wars has turned into the GOP’s overriding objective; businessmen are being told to shut up and dribble.

Which party is more dangerous? The left’s claims on behalf of sexual minorities have little practical impact, and are just mildly annoying. The far right, on the other hand, is clearly willing to destroy liberal democracy in this country to protect its supposed right not to be offended by gay and trans people. That’s not a difficult choice.

On the 46th President Biden.

A small wave of approval he’s ridin’.

But Mitch bars the door

And the right’s culture war

Means the gulf in our nation will widen.

For the same reason that right-wingers dominate business and the clergy: self-selection.

If you believe intensely that everything valuable in our society is ultimately attributable to businessmen, as CLs and PBPs do, isn’t it likely that you will gravitate towards making a living in business? If you think America has turned away from God and is going to hell in a handbasket, aren’t you going to look seriously at a career in religion? Why in the world would these kinds of people want a job in a university, or in the media?

They wouldn’t, and they don’t. Conversely, if you are intellectually gifted, you don’t have a lot of money, you don’t believe in God, but you do believe in the possibility of social improvement, wouldn’t you lean towards a career in teaching, the professions, or the media? Of course you would! And you do, at least in societies in which intellectuals are not directly dependent on the goodwill of a few wealthy patrons.

Refuse to take the vaccine, get the virus, and die. That’ll show them! Stick it to the man!

The overwhelming success of American athletes during the 1984 Olympics was a big part of “Morning in America.” Could Biden benefit from the same phenomenon this year?

Probably not, for several reasons. First, the Olympics aren’t being held on American soil, and the empty stands will serve as a continuing reminder that the pandemic is still with us. Second, we aren’t going to win as many medals as we did in 1984. Third, Biden isn’t the type of person to use American athletes the way Reagan did, and Trump would have. Fourth, the timing is wrong; the election isn’t around the corner. Finally, Tucker Carlson will probably tell his viewers to root for Hungary.

The Covid relief bill was enormously important, but its effects will be temporary. The stimulus checks have been spent by now; the extra unemployment insurance, which effectively created a more generous minimum wage, has expired in some red states and will disappear everywhere in a few months; and the welfare state expansions have a short shelf life. In the long run, this bill won’t make much of a difference. Everything depends on the two other bills that are slowly making their way through Congress.

The bipartisan infrastructure legislation will boost productivity in the long run, but will not make a measurable difference in the short run, if it passes. That is far from assured. The GOP will have to decide whether it wants credit for being reasonable and promoting projects with considerable public support, or sees more political advantage in proving that the Democrats can’t get anything done. To me, that is a 50-50 proposition. If recent behavior is any guide, Mitch will take his default position and obstruct the bill, and most of his members will fall into line.

The most consequential bill is the partisan Democratic Christmas tree. If it makes it through the system, its impacts will be felt for many years to come, and the 2024 election will probably be a referendum on its success or failure. Will it pass? My guess is that the process will have many twists and turns, but that a watered-down bill will pass before the end of the year. This is based on my personal experience that it is much easier to make deals on money than principle, and the Christmas tree is, above all, a deal about money.

The predictably regressive Trump tax cut was sold to the public as a vehicle to increase investment and productivity, with higher wages and a smaller deficit to follow. In terms of what was promised, it was a miserable failure. The deficit soared, but investment remained stagnant, except in dollar stores, share buybacks, and government securities. However, the individual tax cuts, when sprinkled on an economy that was already lively, caused a Keynesian boom that drove up wages, even for unskilled workers. It was totally unintended–a perversion of Abenomics, if you like–but in some ways, it worked, particularly since the Fed agreed to play along and keep interest rates low.

Biden bought into the part about running deficits in order to get the economy running hot, but he has changed the focus of the federal action from regressive tax cuts to spending programs directed at working people. So far, for the most part, it has been a success, but it is early days. What is the longer term prognosis for his program? I will discuss that in my next post.

West Virginia, like Kentucky, is a red state based on nostalgia over coal. You would take your life in your hands if you talk about climate change there. And yet, the irony is that climate change may ultimately be the salvation of the state. Why?

Well, imagine that it is 2040, and you live in a red state. The heat has become unbearable, so you are looking for a refuge. You want to live in an area with plenty of natural beauty, cheap property, and no exposure to natural disasters, such as hurricanes. Obviously, you also want cooler temperatures.

How about . . . the mountains of West Virginia? It’s almost enough to make me want to buy property there.