The Covid relief bill was enormously important, but its effects will be temporary. The stimulus checks have been spent by now; the extra unemployment insurance, which effectively created a more generous minimum wage, has expired in some red states and will disappear everywhere in a few months; and the welfare state expansions have a short shelf life. In the long run, this bill won’t make much of a difference. Everything depends on the two other bills that are slowly making their way through Congress.
The bipartisan infrastructure legislation will boost productivity in the long run, but will not make a measurable difference in the short run, if it passes. That is far from assured. The GOP will have to decide whether it wants credit for being reasonable and promoting projects with considerable public support, or sees more political advantage in proving that the Democrats can’t get anything done. To me, that is a 50-50 proposition. If recent behavior is any guide, Mitch will take his default position and obstruct the bill, and most of his members will fall into line.
The most consequential bill is the partisan Democratic Christmas tree. If it makes it through the system, its impacts will be felt for many years to come, and the 2024 election will probably be a referendum on its success or failure. Will it pass? My guess is that the process will have many twists and turns, but that a watered-down bill will pass before the end of the year. This is based on my personal experience that it is much easier to make deals on money than principle, and the Christmas tree is, above all, a deal about money.