By all accounts, my prediction was correct; the Afghan central government is imploding, and the country is heading for a civil war involving the Taliban and several warlords. The two most important remaining questions about the situation are as follows:
- Will the Pakistanis use their leverage? Once the “good” Taliban take power, they are likely to turn on their Pakistani allies, for whom they will have little further use. As of today, the Pakistanis still have some leverage. Will they use it to try and create a reasonable political settlement, or just celebrate a “victory” that will turn out to be worse than defeat?
- Who gets Ghani? The central government will continue to exist on paper, and will control access to significant military and diplomatic assets. American aid will probably flow to the warlord with the best claim to be the heir to the elected regime. If I’m Ghani, I’m talking to the warlords and making the best deal available to me. If I’m a warlord, I want the legitimacy, money, and weapons he can bring to my side, so I’m willing to pay a pretty high price.