There are two prongs to the battle, first, for LGBTQ rights, and now for transgender rights. The first is a legal/political fight to prohibit discrimination; the second is a more nebulous public relations campaign to establish that the group in question is “normal.” These are major issues in the culture wars, and have polarized the nation to a dangerous degree. Where do they stand, and where are they going?
The LGBTQ crowd turned its legal/political battle around and won it with stunning speed. In 2004, the GOP used anti-gay referenda to boost conservative turnout; today, protection for gay rights is a done deal, subject only to likely Christian carve-outs to be created by the Supreme Court. As to the “normal” question, it is hard to say, but based on the portrayals of LGBTQ people in the MSM, it is likely that they have made progress there, too.
The trans wars have, alas, just started. Given that trans people represent a tiny fraction of one percent of the population, the practical stakes in this one are pathetically low. The war is being waged by people on the left and right who simply can’t get enough of being culture warriors, and don’t know when to stop. The left wants to win a complete victory and plant its flag, figuratively speaking, on Mt. Suribachi again; the right currently sees the issue much as it did gay rights in 2004–opportunistically, as a vote mobilizer for other purposes. So far, conservatives seem to be prevailing, but, as with LGBTQ rights, it is early days.
Is there middle ground here that could prevent the country from cracking up over nothing? Yes! The left wins the legal/political battle on discrimination, but concedes the point on “normalization.” That is my position. I have accepted the left’s reasoning on discrimination; I have made my peace, for example, with gay marriage. But don’t ever expect me to embrace the sweeping new arguments made by trans people that there is no such thing as “normal,” that gender is a fluid concept beyond anyone’s moral judgment, and that I am just an unenlightened “cisgender” oppressor. That will never happen.