Pakistan’s double-dealing over Afghanistan drove four presidents from both political parties crazy. On the one hand, the Pakistani government made a legitimate effort to battle the “bad” domestic Taliban, and provided some useful assistance in Afghanistan; on the other hand, the Pakistani security services gave the “good” Afghan Taliban aid and a refuge from which they could never be dislodged. It was no accident that Osama was found and killed there; Pakistan was effectively the headquarters for the enemy forces in Afghanistan, and America could do nothing about it.
With the imminent withdrawal of American and NATO forces, the Pakistanis will have “won” the war, as their clients are bound to take power sooner or later. But be careful what you ask for, because you might just get it. The “good” Taliban in Afghanistan will undoubtedly assist the “bad” Taliban in Pakistan in its efforts to overthrow the elected government. And America, which is primarily concerned with restraining China in the region, is bound to tilt even more openly towards India.
Some victory! Pakistan is going to be even more of a Chinese client state than it is today, which, given China’s behavior towards Muslims, is going to be a bit embarrassing. China, for its part, will have to take more responsibility for an increasingly unstable neighbor with nuclear weapons and an ideology that doesn’t exactly mesh with theirs. Good luck with that, guys.