Inspired by the performance of our economy in 2019, the availability of cheap money, the persistence of inequality, the structural issues exposed by the pandemic, and the fear of the Orban Option in 2024, Biden has staked his political future on an attempt to grow the welfare state at the expense of the wealthy. This isn’t socialism; it is pure populism, as opposed to the faux variety offered by Trump and the GOP.
While this program has a sound basis in economics, it is based primarily on a bet about the electorate. It raises two questions:
- Will a significant number of reactionary white workers eschew identity politics and vote their economic self-interest if the economy is roaring and wages are rising in 2024?
- Will Biden lose the votes of affluent blue-leaning professionals with his tax increases and potential losses in the markets?
The math is simple: the increased reactionary worker vote has to exceed the decreased blue professional vote for this gamble to succeed.
What is the prognosis? I’m cautiously optimistic, but nobody knows for sure.
How will the GOP respond? I’ll discuss that in my next post.