The Whig Party, which essentially was an updated version of the Federalist Party, which in turn reflected the views of the late 17th and early 18th century version of the Whigs in the UK, died because it was split by the slavery issue. Some commentators have suggested that the current version of the Republican Party could be heading for the same fate. Are they right? How could it happen?
A GOP split is unlikely, but not completely impossible. The split, if it happens, would take place along factional lines–Reactionary vs. PBP. It could occur if the PBPs conclude at some point that there is no reasonable possibility of getting their beloved tax cuts and deregulation from the Reactionaries, as they always have in the past. There are, in turn, two ways this could happen:
- The Reactionaries could completely abandon their support of tax cuts and deregulation in favor of a more populist, interventionist economic policy designed primarily for the benefit of white workers; or
- The GOP could suffer several massive defeats, thereby convincing the PBPs that a party built on Potato Head politics has no future and cannot deliver the goods.
The latter looked possible immediately prior to the 2020 election, but is a very long shot today. The only real hope is #1–“national conservatism.”