For the Democrats in 2022, Trump should be the gift that keeps on giving. His activity in the election will help Democratic candidates paint his open supporters as insurrectionists, while the few GOP figures who supported impeachment and conviction will probably face long, expensive primaries from Trump allies. If there is a down side to this for Democrats, it has escaped my attention.
How big a factor will Trump be? I can’t answer that right now, but here are the key known unknowns:
- HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL TRUMP HAVE TO CONDUCT A REVENGE TOUR? He will certainly be motivated, but he will have plenty of other things to worry about over the next two years. The revenge tour could well fizzle.
- WILL OTHER ISSUES SUPERSEDE OUR CONCERNS WITH TRUMPISM IN 2022? Not if all goes well, but it rarely does.
The bottom line is that McConnell and Trump are poised to engage in a very bloody proxy war for control of the GOP in 2022. For what it’s worth, my money is on Mitch, at least at that stage in the process. The presidential campaign is an entirely different animal; it is very possible that Trump, if he actually runs, will only meet with token opposition, since most of the other potential contenders are terrified of him and his base.