Imagine that you are Xi Jinping. What is your dream for China in, say, 2030?
Here’s a reasonable guess:
- China is prosperous, and more self-sufficient than it is today. Its supply lines for vital resources are completely secure.
- The military is, at the very least, a match for the Americans.
- China has gained complete control over the area in which it claims sovereignty. This includes areas of the South China Sea and possibly even Taiwan.
- The Communist Party’s authority within China is unchallenged. There is no meaningful dissent anywhere in the country. Minorities have been totally assimilated.
- The area immediately outside of Chinese sovereign territory consists of vassal states. This includes, at a minimum, Japan, Vietnam, and both parts of Korea.
- The rest of the world has learned the hard way not to say anything negative about Chinese political and economic practices.
What is missing here is at least as important as what is included. China does not aspire to dominate the world with its military, or to turn the US and Europe into mirror image authoritarian states. Its ideology is Chinese exceptionalism, not communism. You can stop worrying about being sent to labor on a collective farm. The imposition of sanctions for criticism of China, however, is another story.
What would it mean to be a Chinese vassal state? I will address this in a post tomorrow.