Month: January 2021

With one exception, the potential 2024 candidates have reacted predictably to the plan to object to the electoral vote. Cruz and Hawley are sucking up to the Trumpist base and gambling that no enduring damage will be done to the system by their opportunism; Sasse is behaving like the genuine conservative that he appears to be; and Marco Rubio is waffling, as he always does on important issues. The exception is Tom Cotton, who makes the argument that the GOP can’t afford to create a federal override to a state-based system that overwhelmingly benefits them. From his perspective, he’s right, of course. But what does this tell you about the kind of campaign he plans to run in 2024?

That he places a high value on PBP votes and contributions, and that he plans to win back the extreme Trumpists with incendiary, authoritarian rhetoric. What other choice will he have? It will be impossible to get the nomination without strong support from the base.

You may well wonder why the diehard Trumpists continue to spout their ludicrous theories about widespread election fraud in light of their abysmal record in court. How can they believe these stories?

They don’t. What they really believe is that people in urban areas–largely minorities–aren’t real Americans, and shouldn’t have the right to vote. They know, however, that to say that openly would invite savage criticism and ridicule, and has no basis in law. They consequently use “fraud” as a dog whistle for disenfranchising their opponents.

Call it a Republican form of PC. At some point in the fairly near future, however, I predict that you are going to see one or more prominent Republicans man up and openly call for depriving urban residents of the vote. After all, Trump has shown that there is little cost to breaking down decency barriers; why not trample this one?

Brexit was fundamentally a battle of identity politics. On the one side, you had elderly grandmothers serving as volunteers at the local cathedral who regard British history and the imperial past with great fondness. On the other hand, you have a younger, more ethnically diverse population which views the British Empire with guilt and embarrassment and which valued its easy access to Europe.

Granny won. The irony is that Granny, in spite of her feelings about British imperial history, has no desire to engage with the rest of the world; she just wants to keep the foreigners out and the UK white. The empire that she values is a memory, not an ambition.

The vaccine reservation program in Florida.

A significant number of prominent business executives are calling for Congress to certify the results of the election without further ado. The Chamber of Commerce concurs–understandably so. Uncertainty is bad for business.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the PBP/Reactionary deal? Maybe, but don’t hold your breath. Neither side can win national elections, and thus get what it wants out of government, without the other. In addition, they have a common enemy in the far left.

Delays and increased costs in the movement of people and goods. No protection for financial services. A new border of sorts between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. New ammunition supporting the Scottish independence movement. Lost heft and expertise in negotiating trade agreements. There’s no doubt about it: the UK is a big loser with Brexit. The economic and political costs will be felt immediately, and for decades to come.

But the EU loses, too. The UK was a voice for liberal democracy and free trade in an entity in which these ideas are now in peril. The EU will miss it as a bridge to the US. The British net financial contribution is now gone, and will have to be made up somewhere else. Finally, Brexit is tangible evidence that all is not well with the EU, and that its future is cloudy at best.

So much losing! The man on golf cart should be pleased. He would be if he could take his mind off his own troubles.

Ted Cruz has been, by his standards, relatively quiet over the last two years. Today, however, in a desperate attempt to build a bridge to the more extreme elements of the Trumpist base, he has become the most vocal leader of the GOP Senate objector group.

It doesn’t bode well for the next four years. Can a government shutdown be far behind?

We are frequently told that the feebleness of our response to the pandemic is the result of the strong strain of individualism in our national character. And yet, Americans tolerated rationing and other severe restraints in order to win World War II. How does one account for the differences?

Consider the following:

1. Some of what is being called “individualism” is actually reactionary opposition to a government they believe is hostile (Trump excepted) to the values of “real Americans;”
2. The country’s leadership encouraged the reactionary individualist response instead of slamming it as being selfish and unpatriotic; and
3. It’s a lot easier to hate the Japanese and the Germans than a virus you can’t see.

Joe Biden is 78. He only ran for president because he (correctly) thought he was uniquely positioned to rid the country of Trump. He succeeded; to some extent, what actually happens during his administration will be an afterthought. He may well not run for a second term for that reason.

Biden doesn’t have to worry about his legacy the way most presidents do, because his will be assured the day he takes office, and because he probably won’t live long enough to watch the debate. That gives him a freedom in office that most presidents don’t have. If the left bashes him unmercifully on Twitter, as it almost certainly will, what’s it to him? He can just live in the moment and try to do what’s right for the country, not himself.

Here’s hoping he takes full advantage of the opportunity.

His tactics were unconventional, to say the least. There were plenty of doubters. He didn’t win many style points along the way. He needed a lot of help from his friends, and even his opponents. But he had a clear idea of what had to be done, and the discipline to stick to the script, even when it didn’t appear to be working. In the end, the tortoise prevailed, and saved us from four years that would have been far worse than the last four.

Joe Biden is the person of the year. Was there any doubt?

As you can imagine, it was difficult to resist posting material with an Apprentice theme–e.g., “America to Trump: You’re Fired!”–after the election. It occurred to me a few days ago, however, that Trump’s efforts to overturn the result of the election are the other side of the coin. By arguing that the popular will is subordinate to his wishes, Trump is, in effect, trying to fire America.

Good luck with that. We’re a lot bigger than he is.

Josh Hawley has apparently decided to ignore McConnell’s warning and object to the electoral vote on January 6. Ben Sasse’s take on this is that Hawley is irresponsibly damaging public respect for a vital political institution in the hope of winning some cheap popularity with the Trumpist base, which could be useful in 2024.

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

I’m not sure what his original intentions were, but as a result of the pandemic, Biden’s plan became very simple: stay out of the spotlight; sound reasonable and responsible; limit any discussion of ideology; and let Trump destroy himself. It didn’t require much talent, but it did require lots of discipline. This, his campaign had in spades.

The approach worked for Biden, but not for down ballot Democratic candidates, who couldn’t plausibly blame their opponents for Trump’s failures with the pandemic. The result of the election was consequently a mixed bag. Trump lost, but the blue wave that many pollsters predicted never materialized, due to the GOP’s inherent systemic advantages and exploitation of the culture wars in red and purple states.

If the Democrats win the two special elections in Georgia, they will have at least nominal control of the Senate (Joe Manchin will have plenty to say about that), and the left will be pressing for sweeping changes to the political and economic system. If not, and the odds are against it, a small group of senators from both parties will hold the balance of power in the Senate, the left will be frustrated, and progress will be slow. We’ll know in less than a week.