Month: January 2021

Josh Hawley is the very personification of the elite privilege that GOP voters profess to despise. The son of a banker, he attended Stanford and Yale Law School, then clerked for Chief Justice Roberts. He made his name litigating for Hobby Lobby, got elected Missouri Attorney General, filed a legal challenge to Obamacare, and was elected to the Senate in 2018. He is, by all accounts, dying to be president.

The quickest way from Point A to Point B, in his view, was to suck up to Trump and the base. Hence, his unwavering support for the man on golf cart, and the now infamous clenched fist for the benefit of the rioters.

The riot and its aftermath have been a mixed bag for Hawley. On the one hand, he lost his book deal and some of his wealthy patrons, and his colleagues are treating him with disgust and contempt. On the other hand, he probably thinks he cemented his relationship with the trusty base and burnished his outsider credentials–assets he will most assuredly need in 2024.

The problem for Hawley is that he is a lawyer trying to position himself as the logical spokesman for guys like the one with the fur and the Viking hat. Those people don’t represent enough money and votes to win a primary. Furthermore, unlike Trump, Hawley doesn’t appear to have the background and skill set of a street populist, so anti-democratic politics won’t work for him, either. He’s stuck in the middle–inspiring confidence neither from the establishment nor the conspiracy theorists and street thugs.

The bottom line is that lawyers don’t make good fascist leaders. Hawley has lost any connection with the GOP establishment, and replaced it with a temporary advantage that will prove to be fool’s gold.

Tom Cotton, who did not make the same mistake, will be watching with great satisfaction.

A new impeachment process won’t result in Trump’s removal from office, given the timeframes. It won’t divide the GOP in any meaningful way. It won’t uncover and publicize any facts about Trump and the rioters that aren’t already known. It will, however, create an unhelpful distraction at a time when the focus should be on Biden’s agenda. So what’s the point?

To blow off steam, I guess. If there is one thing I learned in 37 years of dealing with government, it is that venting without a sense of strategic purpose is counterproductive. Let’s put an end to this as soon as possible.

I’ve explained many times why sending large checks to all taxpayers is a poor form of stimulus. In a nutshell, a large percentage of the money will go to relatively affluent people who are unscathed by the pandemic, and who will just save it. That does not provide any relief for struggling small businesses, or the unemployed.

But the checks are broadly popular, and money is almost free right now. What if the checks are thrown into a package that also includes aid for state and local governments and a longer extension of unemployment benefits? Why not make the GOP pay the price if it wants to make a stand for austerity for blue states and restaurant employees?

McConnell was in a position to prevent a vote on a package of this nature when he was Majority Leader. Now, he isn’t. I will be surprised if it doesn’t happen.

I think it was Bret Stephens who called the rioters “Visigoths.” In light of the guy with the fur and the Viking hat, that sounds about right.

It also sounds eerily like Pat Buchanan’s reference to “peasants with pitchforks.” Buchanan was speaking over 20 years ago, but now he sounds like a prophet instead of a clown. Was this truly his vision of what America should become? Someone should ask him.

Ross Douthat is fond of pointing out that Trump missed his Reichstag Fire opportunity to crush liberal democracy when he chose not to take the pandemic seriously. For Ross, this is proof that Trump was too lazy and inept to be the threat to the system that some of us made him out to be. There is some truth to that.

Instead, to continue with the German theme, we got something like the Beer Hall Putsch last week, with Trump splitting time between the Hitler and Ludendorff roles. If the absurdity of it makes you feel better about the future, think again; Hitler and his henchmen learned from their mistakes.

Paul Krugman argues that the GOP has been taken over by fascists, and that history tells us that appeasement of right-wing extremists doesn’t work. I previously addressed the first proposition; is he right about the second?

It is important to distinguish between ends and means here. Fascists are reactionaries who rely on extraconstitutional methods (typically violence, of course) to accomplish their objectives. To the extent that reactionaries are using violence and breaking the law, appeasement is not and should not be an option. Appeasing peaceful reactionaries on the substance of some culture war issues, however, would be an appropriate way to prevent them from crossing the line into fascism and becoming a threat to our political system.

The Supreme Court will probably do Biden’s dirty work for him by creating a series of Christian carve-outs over the next few years. One hopes that will stop the rot. We’ll see.

I defined “fascism” as the pursuit of reactionary ends by extraconstitutional means in a post around a year ago. Wednesday’s events unquestionably meet that definition. What does that mean for the GOP?

Here is where the factions stand:

1. CDs: They have already left the party. This episode will convince them they made the right decision.
2. CLs: Fascism inevitably involves an increase in the power of the state over the individual. CLs will oppose that with all the strength they can muster. Unfortunately, they are easily the smallest remaining faction in the party.
3. Reactionaries: They’re now split into two groups. One of them has some respect for the Constitution and our political institutions; it deplores the invasion of the Capitol. The other, much larger, group, supports the takeover and thinks Trump is still fighting for real Americans against the leftist enemy and their misguided RINO allies.
4. PBPs: Mitch McConnell, the WSJ, and the NAM denounced the takeover in no uncertain terms after the loss of the two Senate seats in Georgia. They want Trump gone ASAP.

The bottom line is that over 40 percent of GOP voters, according to a survey, believe the violence was justified. That means the GOP is on the edge of turning into a fascist party. Can the rot be stopped?

It’s up to the PBPs. History tells us they prefer limited government, which maximizes their freedom and power, but will support fascists if they think the only viable alternative is socialism. We’ll see.

The notion of a “conservative frontier” would be an oxymoron, but a “reactionary frontier” in the mists of time is not. If you asked the average American reactionary for a wish list to make America great again, I think this is what you would get:

1. Religious and racial tests to limit voting and officeholding to practicing white Christians;
2. An end to abortion, with birth control being limited to married couples;
3. An end to all legal protections for LGBTQ people;
4. A strict regime of protectionism for failing industries; and
5. Rigorous censorship of the MSM, the internet, and Hollywood.

The first thing you would note about the list is how far removed it is from anything that Donald Trump, or any current GOP politician, has seriously suggested. That is because there is no possibility of the agenda, with the exception of #2, becoming reality without dramatic changes to our political and legal systems.

I submit to you that the distance between the dream and reality is the reason so many reactionaries are perpetually angry, and why the Trumpist base is consequently sympathetic to fascism. If you needed proof of that, you received it on Wednesday. Trump himself is too lazy and narcissistic to make it happen, but by trampling norms left and right, he has shown that it could happen with the right leadership.

Yesterday was a really, really bad day for Mitch McConnell. First, he woke up to find that the GOP had lost the two Georgia races, and that he was now the Minority Leader. Then, he had to deal with the dangerous divisions in the GOP over the election objections, and the crazoid occupation of the Capitol. Finally, he undoubtedly heard at some point that Biden was going to nominate Merrick Garland for AG. That had to bring back some memories.

As I noted previously, the AG job is Biden’s most important hire. Garland is a relatively nonpartisan, respected figure, and is thus an appropriate choice for such a sensitive job. What makes this nomination special, however, is his history with McConnell and the Supreme Court. This time, he’s going to get his hearing, and Mitch can do nothing about it.

A snap poll of GOP supporters indicated that almost half of the party supported the occupation of the Capitol. If you thought this fiasco would shock them into seeing reason, guess again.

On the GOP leader named Mitch.

He’s gone after Trump–that’s a switch!

No longer the boss

Our gain is his loss

But you know, they say karma’s a bitch.

Mitch McConnell has proved over and over again that he doesn’t give much of a damn about the welfare of the American people. What he does care about is the number and electoral safety of GOP senators. And so, having lost his majority as the result of the antics of his party leader, who was now threatening to primary any GOP member of Congress who didn’t vote to keep him in power, thus weakening the GOP even further, McConnell finally snapped. His speeches–delivered with great passion, for him–were the highlight of a very long day.

McConnell’s plan was to avoid votes that would split his senators. He was partially successful; the votes took place, but his majority was so large, it will be difficult for the Trump supporters to find plausible primary opponents for all of them. The sore thumbs were the objectors, not the RINOs.

Who is the luckiest man in America today? Marco Rubio. The riots gave him the necessary cover to vote against the crazoids. Without it, who knows what he does?

Rick Scott voted for one of the two objections. He probably thinks that proves he has independent judgment and a foot in both camps. What it actually makes him is half a crazoid, which, if anything, is even more ridiculous than a full one.

Trump ran for president as someone who would disrupt the status quo. This was welcomed by many of his supporters, who were convinced they had nothing to lose, regardless of his conspicuous personal shortcomings.

So, have you had enough disruption yet? Did today’s events give you satisfaction?

The end of the man on golf cart administration, logically enough, is a man on golf cart coup attempt–a farce, not a revolution. A rabble of burly MAGA hat wearing men in the Capitol does not represent a serious threat to the constitutional order. Next time, however, it will be militia members with guns and a clear idea of what to do. The flags compare Trump to Jesus, but in reality, he’s only John the Baptist.

D.C. gets its chance this afternoon.

It appears that Trump’s antics, most notably his allegations about the rigged system, impacted turnout just enough to cost the GOP the two Senate seats in Georgia. Now what?

Well, of course, he’s going to lose today, too. The question is whether the Georgia result will have an impact on the 2024 presidential hopefuls who are sitting on the fence, including the always ambivalent Marco Rubio. My guess is that it will, and the GOP civil war will intensify, at least in the short run; the PBP tax cuts are now in jeopardy, and they will blame the crazoids for it.

Mitch McConnell, Minority Leader? You have to like the sound of that as much as he dislikes it.