Here’s what I’m betting will happen at the trial:
- No more than five Republicans will vote to convict.
- There will be little effort on the part of the rest to justify his conduct on this occasion.
- The senators voting to acquit will either parse Trump’s words or argue that impeaching someone who is out of office is unconstitutional.
- Their real motivation will be to suck up to the base (particularly if they didn’t vote to overturn the election), while trying to look respectable to the donor class.
- Trump will say that he has been vindicated, and that he was the victim of yet another hoax. The base, encouraged by Fox News, will believe him.
- Once again, impeachment has been shown to be a completely ineffectual remedy. The GOP won’t support it regardless of the severity of the violation.
- The Democrats will claim that they won a moral victory by getting a few Republican votes and standing up for an important principle. They didn’t. There are no moral victories at this stage of the process.