Month: December 2020

American policy–or, rather, policies–towards Ukraine during the Trump era are the other side of the Russia coin. On the one hand, the foreign policy establishment pursued a wholly conventional approach of supporting Ukraine against Russian ambitions and pushing for reforms to make the government more effective; on the other hand, Trump raged against Ukraine and tried to blackmail its government into investigating his political opponents. The dissonance was deafening.

As with Russia, the conflict disappears the day Biden takes office. The new administration will only pursue the State Department line. The Ukrainian government will undoubtedly breathe a sigh of relief; it will no longer be a football in the world of American politics.

Maintaining national unity in a liberal democratic state is far easier in the face of a compelling, dangerous external enemy. I don’t think it is a coincidence that politics in this country started to become more polarized shortly after the demise of the USSR. So what could replace the Russians in the foreseeable future?

It could have been, and should have been, the virus. If Trump had possessed an ounce of sense and intellectual flexibility, he would have worn a mask and made fighting the virus an overriding national priority. Americans would have responded favorably even if he had failed. He didn’t try, however, and the rest is history.

The Chinese? Maybe. Getting tough with them is popular with both parties; to the extent that China is a partisan issue, it involves means, not ends. The question is whether Trump has already irrevocably divided us on foreign policy. That remains to be seen.

Boris Johnson has clearly identified his brand of populism with Trump’s. The British are worried that this will damage their relationship with the US after Trump’s defeat and departure. Is their concern justified?

No. Unlike, say, Netanyahu, Boris never crossed the line by openly advocating for Trump’s re-election. In addition, he took positions on issues like climate change and Iran that conflicted with Trump’s. Finally, the links between the two nations are very strong. They will survive the transition easily.

The better question is whether the UK will have the same degree of influence on the US, regardless of who is in power, after Brexit. The most likely answer is no. The UK was a useful cultural and ideological bridge between the US and the rest of the EU; in less than a month, that will be gone, and the UK will find its new isolation to be less than splendid.

As I’ve noted before, Trump’s greatest “accomplishment” in office has been to convince his own party that he alone stood between them and cultural (and possibly physical) annihilation. As a result, surveys show that Cruz voters from 2016 supported him even more strongly than his own primary partisans as his term went on.

But what happens now? If he runs for president in 2024, how is he going to convince GOP voters that no one else can save them, when they somehow managed to survive four years with Biden? It’s going to be a tough sell.

Erdogan and Putin have more in common than I suspect they would like to admit. Both are, of course, strongmen with little regard for liberal democratic norms; both preside over struggling economies; and, possibly as a result, both are being increasingly aggressive in their respective backyards. They are currently engaged in proxy wars in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. These conflicts typically end in agreements between the two without regard to the concerns of NATO or the other powers in the region. But will they always, particularly in light of Putin’s clear advantage in military strength, if NATO is left out of the equation?

This is happening largely because Trump had no interest in using American power to maintain some semblance of order in the region or to save liberal democracy in Turkey. When Biden takes office, he will have to decide whether to try and force Erdogan to dampen his foreign ambitions, restore democracy, and play nice with the rest of NATO. While it is clear that Biden is far more skeptical of the Sultan than Trump was, I’m not sure his actual policy will be that much different. Keeping Erdogan on side requires a lot of energy that needs to be devoted to more pressing concerns–most notably, China.

2020 had it all.

Pandemic spring; election fall.

We live in interesting times

The Chinese say–and they aren’t lyin’.

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Trump went down, and we rejoiced.

The quiet middle found a voice.

You couldn’t call it a blue wave

But, for now, our nation’s saved.

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We’re at home and doing fine.

Our Europe trip died on the vine.

We’re spending more time on our deck.

The view is great, so what the heck.

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We’ve retired; our work is done.

We chucked our jobs to have more fun.

I have more time to walk the dog

And do more posting on my blog.

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2020–what a year!

Deliverance is finally here.

It’s just eight weeks until he goes

And you won’t have to hold your nose.