Month: December 2020

It goes something like this:

1. Hardworking white Christian men like me made America the greatest and most powerful country on the planet.
2. As a result, we have established the right to rule this country in every possible way–economically, politically, and socially—-in perpetuity.
3. Our primacy is under threat as a result of demographic change and an evolving economy which puts more value on education than our strength and skills.
4. This development is promoted by an overeducated elite which includes the MSM, Hollywood, big business, and the judiciary. They use undeserving minorities as their electoral shock troops to win elections and keep us down.
5. We are entitled to do whatever it takes to stay in power, because the alternative could be cultural or even physical annihilation. If that means using violence (or at least the threat of it), overthrowing the establishment, and changing the political system to perpetuate minority rule, so be it.

Parts of this are true. #3 definitely is. You can make a case for #4, even though it ignores the existence of a very large and undisturbed cultural safe space for reactionaries. It is also true that white Christian men played a disproportionately large role in the creation of America, as it exists today. However:

1. White Christians were hardly viewed as a monolithic entity throughout our history, as the Italians and Irish would be happy to tell you. Concerns about alien cultures are old wine in new bottles.
2. American culture has constantly evolved over time, and has been profoundly influenced by people of color. Today’s America would be unrecognizable but for their contributions.
3. Even if you don’t accept everything the authors of the 1619 Project say, you have to admit that the record of white Christians in this country has been a mixed bag.
4. Nothing in the past, or in the Constitution, provides an entitlement for white Christian men to maintain a perpetual right to primacy in this country.
5. There is no plausible evidence which suggests that white Christians are heading for the gas chambers, or at least for irrelevance. This is pure projection on their part.
6. The reactionary “solution” is illiberal democracy at best, and outright fascism at worst.

Steve Mnuchin has a typical Keynesian rationale for focusing on payments to everyone, instead of small businesses and the unemployed: sending checks to taxpayers will pump money into the economy, which will create jobs, which will benefit everyone. Is he right?

No, because this isn’t a typical recession. Americans in lockdown aren’t going to spend money in restaurants; they will either save it or send it to Amazon. Neither response does anything to help local small businesses or the unemployed, unless they want to change jobs and drive for Jeff Bezos. Republicans and Democrats alike should agree that making Amazon and Walmart even bigger and driving up asset prices to an even higher level isn’t a proper solution to a temporary problem.

Fox, on balance, has allied itself with the non-denialist reactionaries. That has predictably enraged Trump, who for the last few months has been touting much smaller news outlets as a more suitable alternative. It is fairly likely that he will wind up hosting a show on one of these networks after he leaves office. Will he patch things up with Fox if he runs in 2024?

Yes, because the two need each other. From Trump’s perspective, the illegitimacy issue that currently divides them will have faded after the midterm elections, and he will need more friendly eyeballs than the Fox alternatives can provide. For Fox, he has been a meal ticket for several years; why would they turn on him in 2024?

About six weeks ago, you could have made a reasonable case that Mitch McConnell was right about the stimulus. Unemployment had fallen below 7 percent, and the economy was clearly recovering. Another large bill was unnecessary.

Today, with the virus spreading throughout the country (no geographic areas excluded) and grim winter lockdowns looming, the situation is different. We are clearly looking at six months or more of unusually high unemployment and slow recovery. The vaccine will ultimately put an end to this situation, but for now, help is definitely needed.

There is no dispute at this point about assistance for crippled small businesses and a reasonable level of federal help for the unemployed. A general stimulus payment would probably just be saved, and would be wasteful, as the national savings rate is already unusually high. The remaining issues involve state and local government assistance and liability protection for businesses.

As to the latter, I have no great philosophical objection; it depends on how the language is written. If the idea is just to give capital another cudgel against labor, I’m opposed. As to state and local government assistance, history tells us that it is one of the most cost-effective forms of stimulus imaginable; it maintains essential services in both red and blue states, while preventing inevitable salary cuts and layoffs that will dampen the recovery.

McConnell needs to get over his phobia about helping blue states–the ones that subsidize his state every day–immediately. Perhaps a little prodding from red state governors who are going to feel the economic and political pain of service cuts and layoffs would help.

When Trump leaves office in January, he will be facing an avalanche of legal problems, including civil suits, potential criminal charges in New York, and a variety of investigations initiated by the House of Representatives. What impact, if any, will that have on his potential candidacy?

Not as much as you might expect. If there is one thing we learned from his four years in office, it is that his trusty base couldn’t care less about allegations of misconduct; they just view it as another form of disruption, and thus a promise kept. Furthermore, we know that the allegiance of his base alone is enough to win him the nomination, if not a general election. In short, nothing that comes out of any investigation over the next few years is going to cost him the nomination, if he wants it, unless he winds up doing time in New York, which is unlikely.

The more pressing question is whether his physical and mental health will permit him to run at an even more advanced age. On that point, I make no predictions.

(It’s January 20, 2021. Trump is in the White House bunker with Rudy, Mike Pence, and Mike Pompeo. Melania and Barron have long since departed for Mar-a-Lago. Barr deserted the sinking ship a few days ago, to the disdain of the true believers.

There is a loaded gun on the table. Is it foreshadowing? Of course it is!)

TRUMP: I just don’t understand. Where did we go wrong?

RUDY: Maybe we should have worn masks and pretended to care about stopping the virus.

TRUMP: I hear you, but I just couldn’t do that. My brand is being strong. My father told me always to be strong. Masks are for wimps. I don’t think that was it.

POMPEO: Maybe you should have made more of an effort to feel the people’s pain.

TRUMP: What about my pain? The MSM are always banging on about the virus and dead people. What about me? My pain is much greater than theirs!

PENCE: The problem was that the American people didn’t deserve you. You made America great again, and this is your thanks for it? It’s an outrage!

TRUMP: Yeah, I think that’s it. I think they just got tired of winning so much, and wanted something different.

(An aide bursts through the door)

AIDE: The Bidenistas have reached the White House gate!

TRUMP: How long can you keep them out?

AIDE: Just a few minutes more! (He leaves)

TRUMP: We have to do something! Rudy, go over to the Supreme Court and file something! Amy Coney Barrett will save us! She owes me!

RUDY: It’s too late, boss. The Supremes won’t intervene. Anyway, I can’t even get there at this point.

TRUMP: M & M, any ideas?

POMPEO: You can always retreat to Florida and start working on your comeback. It worked for Nixon. And for Napoleon–sort of.

TRUMP: But I can’t do that. I’d be admitting that I was a loser! I can’t live with that! And the public might ignore my tweets! It’s BAD! It’s more than anyone can bear!

PENCE: I guess that leaves you with just one option. (He points to the gun)

TRUMP: Yeah, I guess you’re right. You’re coming with me, of course. Who wants to go first?

RUDY: I’ll go first. I don’t have any future. I even have the virus. There’s nothing left to lose. (He picks up the gun and blows his brains out)

TRUMP: M & M?

POMPEO: I don’t want to do it. I still have a future. I can run in 2024.

TRUMP: No, you can’t. You’re completely tied to me. You can’t tweet and own the libs the way I do. No one would take you seriously.

POMPEO: You’re probably right. (He shoots himself)

TRUMP: Mike, I guess you’re next.

PENCE: Anything in the service of you and my Lord. (BANG!)

(The aide bursts in again)

AIDE: They’re inside! They’re taking down your pictures and putting up Biden photos! The Andrew Jackson portrait has been removed! Dr. Jill is measuring the curtains in the Oval Office!

TRUMP: It’s time for me to go. (He blows his brains out, and the country is saved for another four years).

A few weeks ago, I predicted that we would see two GOP civil wars after the election: one between Reactionaries who grudgingly accepted the results and those who didn’t; and one between PBPs and Reactionaries as a whole. Where do they stand?

The internal Reactionary battle is in full swing, and may cost the GOP the two Senate seats in Georgia; after all, what’s the point in voting if the system is already rigged? Even Governor Kemp (a/k/a, “The Dumbest Man in America), who tried so desperately to play for Trump’s favor, is now viewed as a Judas by the true believers. The conflict between the two groups isn’t likely to go away anytime soon, as Trump never forgets a slight.

Think of the scene in “Life of Brian” with the “Judean Peoples’ Front” and the “People’s Front of Judea” and you have some idea of what to expect.

The PBPs have succeeded in staying out of the fray thus far by refusing to admit that Biden has prevailed, but that will change as soon as the Electoral College votes are counted. At that point, they will move on. The base will never forgive them for it.

So who would have the nerve and the resources to take on the man on golf cart in 2024? Without listing names, here are some ideological niches that could be filled in a primary battle:

1. A CD, calling for the GOP to become a responsible center right party again;
2. A CL or PBP, emphasizing the need to cut federal spending;
3. A National Conservative (i.e., a Reactionary with a populist economic plan); or
4. A Reactionary who believes that a candidate with a little more finesse, a lot less corruption, more of a firm sense of direction, and two slower Twitter thumbs would have more success in a general election than Trump did. Call him Trump at 90 percent.

What are the prospects for these people? One or more CDs would undoubtedly run, but a CD can’t win in today’s Republican Party, which is now dominated by Reactionaries. Cutting spending resonates with Reactionaries only if its impacts are limited to minorities, which is unrealistic. National Conservatives will be fought tooth and nail by the donor class. That leaves #4 as the most plausible possibility, depending on what happens to Trump in the next four years. I will discuss that in a post tomorrow.

This is the relationship that really matters. It is the one that will define the 21st century, and even determine the future of the planet.

Trump could never figure out what he wanted from China. Were the Chinese an existential threat to our system and way of life, with regime change the only possible solution? Was the objective just to reduce the trade deficit? Or should he just use China as a convenient punching bag for the purpose of winning illusory battles and picking up domestic political support? The answer seemed to change from day to day.

The two most critical questions in the relationship are as follows:

1. Can China’s legitimate concerns about sovereignty be accommodated without endangering the interests of its neighbors?
2. Can America keep a strong enough position on tech issues to remain secure?

I will address these issues, and more, in my annual China series during the week of Chinese New Year.

Here’s how the GOP factions will respond to a Trump candidacy in 2024:

1. CDs: Seriously? More divisiveness, corruption, and incompetence? That’s the last thing we need!
2. CLs: The wall, excessive spending, corruption, and contempt for the Constitution and the rule of law were too much for us, even with the tax cuts and deregulation. It’s time to move on.
3. PBPs: Only if a socialist is the only other choice. We hated the tariffs and the capricious interventions in the economy. Disaster was always lurking around the corner. There has to be someone better than him.
4. Reactionaries: MAGA! MAGA! SAVE AMERICA AND OVERTURN THE STEAL! ONLY TRUMP STANDS BETWEEN US AND THE ANNIHILATION OF OUR CULTURE!

Unfortunately for us, the Reactionaries probably make up a majority of the GOP at this point. CDs have mostly left the party; CLs are a tiny minority; and the PBPs historically kept quiet in the face of his outrages. As a result, even though the man’s defects are obvious to everyone, he will be the favorite to win the GOP nomination if he runs in 2024.

Would anyone play Eugene McCarthy to his LBJ in 2024? I will speculate on that issue tomorrow.

Justice Alito reportedly gave a full-throated culture wars speech to the Federalist Society a few weeks ago. The contrast between this public display and Barrett’s confirmation hearings is extremely stark. It gives the lie to the idea that Supreme Court justices put their religious views in a box when they analyze cases–not that we ever really thought they did.

Ordinarily, I would find this kind of public statement by a justice reprehensible, but in this instance, I think it brings clarity to two issues:

1. It refutes the idea on the left that right-wing culture warriors are just poor illiterate saps who vote against their economic interests for the benefit of plutocrats; but
2. It also makes it clear that the right’s claim to be powerless in the face of the blue cultural onslaught are also false. Alito is, after all, one of the most important men in the country, because of, not in spite of, his reactionary Catholic beliefs.

Paul Krugman says we should learn to love debt. Is he right?

Mostly, but not completely, as follows:

1. He is correct that at the current microscopic interest rates, there is little danger in incurring more debt. Virtually any government expenditure that isn’t laughably stupid will pay for itself under those conditions.
2. Furthermore, investments in green technology should be financed through borrowing, as most of the benefits will inure to future generations, and costs will be incurred whether we make the investments or not.
3. Finally, there are plenty of reasons, both here and elsewhere, to expect that interest rates will remain low in the future.

But what if conditions change? Increases in rates would be a disaster. They would sink both the stock and the bond market and would make financing the deficit much more expensive. A period of savage austerity would follow. It’s a contingency which needs to be considered.

Interest rates are a function of a variety of factors, including the overall health of the economy, the level of savings on both a national and international level, and confidence in the government’s ability and willingness to pay its creditors. The last is a particular concern. Just to cite one example, it isn’t hard to imagine Mitch and his cronies engineering another debt ceiling crisis during the next four years to crash the economy and reap the presumed electoral benefits. The ripple effects of that kind of government failure would last for years.

America was divided. One side had a vibrant, growing, state of the art economy; it was socially progressive, and embraced (albeit sometimes grudgingly) people of a variety of ethnicities. The other side depended to a large extent on commodities. It was growing much more slowly, and viewed the progressive ideas of the first side with suspicion. To a majority of its residents, the natural order of things was for white men to rule. It reacted violently to anyone who suggested otherwise.

Is it 1860 or 2020? You decide.

As with Cuba, Trump’s policy towards Venezuela was mostly driven by domestic political concerns–the desire to keep Marco Rubio and the exile community happy. As with Iran, the response was to apply “maximum pressure” to try to force regime change. The ensuing campaign against Maduro was well-intentioned and run with a reasonable degree of competence, but it failed. Today, Maduro is still in power, and the Venezuelan economy has collapsed, with no end in sight. It is clear that only a large scale military intervention by the US or Colombia would topple the regime, and there is no appetite for it on the part of either country.

The message should be clear: economic sanctions don’t lead to regime change when the government in question is united, indifferent to public suffering, and prepared to do anything to stay in power.

Biden will be left to pick up the pieces. My guess is that he will put more emphasis on ending the misery than regime change. Look for him to try more carrots, and fewer sticks, to stop the conflict, even if it costs him support in Florida.

Joe Biden and the Democrats supported a substantial increase in the minimum wage at a national level; Donald Trump opposed it. Trump won Florida. A state constitutional amendment increasing the minimum wage passed, with over 60 percent of the vote. How can this be?

Identity politics and culture wars, of course. The Florida electorate prefers the Democrats’ position on virtually all issues relating to taxation, spending, and the economy, but won’t vote for Democrats, because they are they are supposedly the party of socialism and political correctness. That prevails over mere economic concerns under all but extreme circumstances.

So how do the Democrats deal with this? By confronting the culture war issue directly, instead of ignoring it, as they have in the past, including this year.