There are two looming deadlines that may well dominate the public discussion during the last half of the Biden administration: the Medicare Trust Fund is projected to become insolvent in 2024 as the result of the pandemic and chronic funding problems; and the individual Trump tax cuts expire in 2025. How will they play out?
Both provide opportunities for Biden to divide the GOP and accomplish important goals. In the case of Medicare, his response certainly will be to raise the earnings limit on the FICA tax, which will require McConnell to choose between two of his most important constituencies–the elderly and wealthy businessmen. Biden will also undoubtedly propose making the tax cuts permanent except for highest earners; McConnell will have to give up something really important if he wants to protect his donors from significant tax increases.
We’re going to endure at least two years in which the GOP Senate possesses most of the leverage. This will be the exception. Enjoy it.