So who would have the nerve and the resources to take on the man on golf cart in 2024? Without listing names, here are some ideological niches that could be filled in a primary battle:
- A CD, calling for the GOP to become a responsible center right party again;
- A CL or PBP, emphasizing the need to cut federal spending;
- A National Conservative (i.e., a Reactionary with a populist economic plan); or
- A Reactionary who believes that a candidate with a little more finesse, a lot less corruption, more of a firm sense of direction, and two slower Twitter thumbs would have more success in a general election than Trump did. Call him Trump at 90 percent.
What are the prospects for these people? One or more CDs would undoubtedly run, but a CD can’t win in today’s Republican Party, which is now dominated by Reactionaries. Cutting spending resonates with Reactionaries only if its impacts are limited to minorities, which is unrealistic. National Conservatives will be fought tooth and nail by the donor class. That leaves #4 as the most plausible possibility, depending on what happens to Trump in the next four years. I will discuss that in a post tomorrow.