The World After Trump: Venezuela

As with Cuba, Trump’s policy towards Venezuela was mostly driven by domestic political concerns–the desire to keep Marco Rubio and the exile community happy. As with Iran, the response was to apply “maximum pressure” to try to force regime change. The ensuing campaign against Maduro was well-intentioned and run with a reasonable degree of competence, but it failed. Today, Maduro is still in power, and the Venezuelan economy has collapsed, with no end in sight. It is clear that only a large scale military intervention by the US or Colombia would topple the regime, and there is no appetite for it on the part of either country.

The message should be clear: economic sanctions don’t lead to regime change when the government in question is united, indifferent to public suffering, and prepared to do anything to stay in power.

Biden will be left to pick up the pieces. My guess is that he will put more emphasis on ending the misery than regime change. Look for him to try more carrots, and fewer sticks, to stop the conflict, even if it costs him support in Florida.