Erdogan and Putin have more in common than I suspect they would like to admit. Both are, of course, strongmen with little regard for liberal democratic norms; both preside over struggling economies; and, possibly as a result, both are being increasingly aggressive in their respective backyards. They are currently engaged in proxy wars in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. These conflicts typically end in agreements between the two without regard to the concerns of NATO or the other powers in the region. But will they always, particularly in light of Putin’s clear advantage in military strength, if NATO is left out of the equation?
This is happening largely because Trump had no interest in using American power to maintain some semblance of order in the region or to save liberal democracy in Turkey. When Biden takes office, he will have to decide whether to try and force Erdogan to dampen his foreign ambitions, restore democracy, and play nice with the rest of NATO. While it is clear that Biden is far more skeptical of the Sultan than Trump was, I’m not sure his actual policy will be that much different. Keeping Erdogan on side requires a lot of energy that needs to be devoted to more pressing concerns–most notably, China.