Donald Trump replaced the Iran nuclear deal with a “maximum pressure” campaign. As everyone outside of Jerusalem and the White House predicted, the new approach led to lots of misery on the part of the Iranian people, but neither resulted in regime change nor a major modification of the Iranian government’s behavior. Today, we have reached an equilibrium that satisfies nobody. Can Biden put the nuclear deal back together?
It won’t be easy, because neither side was completely satisfied with it. The Iranians didn’t see the economic benefits that they expected, while the Americans wanted longer timeframes on nukes and more constraints on Iranian aggression outside its borders. My guess is that the deal, to have any chance of success, will have to be reframed to meet the evolving needs of both sides. That means economic aid, not just the ability to trade, for the Iranians, and longer timeframes and more restrictions on Iranian conventional weapons for the Americans.
Don’t count on it working, due to intense domestic political opposition on both sides. And if it doesn’t? The danger of stumbling into war is still very real.