More than any of America’s erstwhile adversaries, with the possible exception of Iran, Donald Trump really hated the EU. As a result, Merkel and Macron, among many others, will be relieved to see the back of him. They and Biden will be eager to get things back to normal.
Relations will undoubtedly improve immediately. The frivolous tariffs will disappear, the US will re-enter the Paris Agreement, and there will be no further threats to leave NATO. Biden will be asking the EU to help contain China and Iran, and should have some success. There will be some new and difficult issues to deal with in the process of performing the repair job, however:
- The European leaders know that about 70 million Americans voted for Trump even after seeing how much harm he could do over four years. They will be concerned about a future populist turn in American politics, and may choose to hedge their bets more than in the past;
- The dominant protectionist gene in the EU is starting to assert itself again. It won’t be going away any time soon;
- The phenomenon of illiberal democracies within the EU presents problems for both the American and EU leadership;
- It is unlikely that Biden and the EU will see completely eye-to-eye on the treatment of American tech giants; and
- The thorny issue of European underinvestment in defense will continue, even if it gets less emphasis from both sides.