China Looks at Biden

Should the Chinese welcome or fear a Biden presidency? It’s a mixed bag. On the plus side, he might be persuaded to lift those stupid tariffs and negotiate more reasonably, and his relative predictability reduces the likelihood of stumbling into either a trade or a shooting war. He will also be looking to cooperate on climate change. On the down side, his complaints about human rights would be unwelcome, and he’s likely to be much more effective than Trump (who doesn’t really even try) in persuading the Europeans, Australians, Japanese, South Koreans, and Indians to join a united front against Chinese aggression.

What are the chances of a President Biden engaging in a shooting war to protect Taiwan? I honestly don’t know the answer to that one. He probably doesn’t, either.