We apparently have an informal agreement to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression. And why not? From unpromising authoritarian beginnings, Taiwan has evolved into a robust, prosperous liberal democratic state. It is everything we hoped the mainland would be, but isn’t.
Circumstances have changed, however. It was relatively easy to commit to defend Taiwan when the PRC was a military pygmy. That is no longer true, and is becoming less true by the day. We would be fighting on the PRC’s home field, thousands of miles from the American mainland. It would be an incredibly risky endeavor.
The Chinese leadership has shown in recent days that it won’t wait forever to force a confrontation over Taiwan. When it does, will the United States put its very existence at risk to protect what it acknowledges is part of China? Is Taiwan a core strategic interest in the same way that Europe is?
I have my doubts, regardless of who the American president is at the time. If I’m a member of the Taiwanese government, I wouldn’t base my plans on it.