I’ve noted innumerable times before that the foundation of the current GOP is a deal in which the PBPs get tax cuts and deregulation, and the Reactionaries get conservative judges and lots of soothing words on social issues. While Trump has a heterodox style, to say the least, he is a traditionalist on this subject; he has unquestionably delivered the goods to both factions. But what happens if he is trounced in November? Will the deal remain in effect?
It will come under attack from both sides, because the PBPs and the Reactionaries are going to blame each other for the debacle. The Reactionaries will attribute Trump’s defeat to his failure to adopt a populist economic strategy; the PBPs will say it was all due to those damned outrageous tweets that pleased the base, but turned off swing voters. Some Reactionaries are toying with a populist economic plan that deviates dramatically from the Reagan era theory of freedom and tax cuts; you will hear more about it in the future. Some PBPs will support Biden in order to bring an end to the division and chaos.
My best guess is that the agreement will ultimately stand, as neither party to it has much chance of getting what it most wants without using the other faction as an ally. The agreement has some seriously negative consequences for the future of the GOP, however. I will address these, and some potential ways out, in future posts.