Determined to create and use leverage that is denied to him by the Constitution, and desperate to show the voters that he is the benevolent despot he plays in his dreams, Trump signed executive orders on unemployment insurance, payroll taxes, and evictions yesterday. He undoubtedly thinks the public will give him great credit for these patently illegal actions. It is more likely that they will lead to yet more chaos.
On the UI issue, he is proposing to use money from a fund that will be needed during the height of hurricane season. Hurricanes or not, it will run out pretty quickly. The states will have to find money they don’t have in their pandemic-ravaged budgets to participate. It will take at least weeks, and possibly months, to reprogram antiquated state computer systems to make the new system work. Finally, the payments represent a cut from the previous entitlement. How much credit does he think he will get from the unemployed for that?
As for the payroll tax holiday, it does nothing to address the lack of consumer confidence that is driving the recession, it does not help the unemployed, and it is just a deferral, which means that anyone seeking to take advantage of it has to be prepared for a big hit a few months away. In all likelihood, most businesses will continue to pay as before in order to avoid the later big hit. In the meantime, Trump is blowing a hole in the Social Security and Medicare budgets, which won’t exactly endear him to seniors, and dividing his party. This is another political disaster in the making.
So how will the Democrats respond? Will they continue negotiations in the face of these illegal actions? If I’m Nancy Pelosi, I tell the GOP leaders in Congress that there will be no negotiations unless and until they acknowledge the executive orders are unconstitutional. If they don’t do that, and they probably won’t, then I sue.