Assume, for purposes of argument, that Trump is soundly beaten in November. What, in the eyes of the potential GOP contenders in 2024, will be the lesson? Here are four possibilities:
- THE MESSAGE WAS RIGHT, BUT THE MESSENGER WAS TOO FLAWED: The theory here is that the combination of regressive tax cuts for wealthy businessmen and divisive, provocative tweets and conservative judges for the reactionary base was exactly right, but that Trump’s indiscipline, narcissism, corruption, and ignorance were just too big a hurdle to overcome. A better candidate with the same message could prevail. LIKELY CANDIDATE WITH THIS MESSAGE: Tom Cotton.
- THE MESSAGE WAS WRONG. WE NEED A BIGGER TENT. BRING BACK THE CDS AND STOP THE RACIST STUFF!: This is a call for a revival of the PBP/CD Romney Coalition. LIKELY CANDIDATES WITH THIS MESSAGE: Larry Hogan; Nikki Haley.
- TRUMP JUST WASN’T POPULIST ENOUGH: “National conservatives” want a populist (i.e., reactionary) economic policy focusing on white Christian workers, not more tax cuts for rich people. The rest of Trump’s message is on point. LIKELY CANDIDATE WITH THIS MESSAGE: Josh Hawley.
- TRUMP DIDN’T CARE ENOUGH ABOUT CONTROLLING SPENDING AND CUTTING DEFICITS: Bring back the Tea Party! This time, the GOP really, really means it about reducing spending. Trust me. Trust me. LIKELY CANDIDATES WITH THIS MESSAGE: Ted Cruz; Rick Scott.
For the record, my money is on Cotton, but the world can change a lot between now and then. Let’s just hope it doesn’t change a lot between now and November.