I’ve written many times about the four GOP ideological factions and the four quadrants of the Democratic graph. How do the two fit together, and how is the picture changing?
As you might have guessed, the system as a whole consists of four groupings, as follows:
- The Reactionaries, consisting of the Reactionary and CL factions of the GOP, make up 30-35 percent of the electorate. This is Trump’s base.
- The Conservatives, consisting of the PBP faction and the few CDs that remain in the Republican Party, are about 15-20 percent of the electorate. These are the swing voters in November. Some will support Trump in recognition of his tax cut; others see him as dangerously incompetent, or worse. He needs virtually all of these votes to win.
- The Liberals, otherwise known as the realo grouping of the Democrats, have about 30-35 percent of the electorate. This is Biden’s base. They hate Trump and support incremental change, but steer clear of socialism and political correctness.
- The Social Democrats, also identified as the fundi grouping of Democrats, have 15-20 percent of the electorate. These are Sanders voters, and they are demanding radical change.
The most significant development of the last ten years or so has been the exodus of Conservatives to the Reactionaries and, to a lesser extent, to the Liberals. This movement to the right, due partly to the failures of the Bush administration and partly to blue victories in the culture war, has destabilized our system. Over the next ten years, you can probably expect a similar move to the left from the Democrats, mostly for demographic reasons. The Liberals and Conservatives may well find that they have more in common with each other than they do with the extreme elements of their respective parties.
What would that mean for the future? Europe provides us with a clue. More on that tomorrow.