In the end, Biden is going to make this decision based largely on personal chemistry. That’s a subjective standard that defies analysis from outside. The rest of the criteria, however, are more objective, and can be listed:
- Is she qualified to be president on the first day if something happens to me?
- Are we ideologically compatible?
- Can I imagine her running for president, and winning, in 2024?
- Would picking her create the risk of losing a Senate seat?
- Has she been vetted on a national basis?
- Does she bring something positive to the campaign?
The unusual criterion is #3. Biden knows he is a transitional figure, and may only serve one term if he is elected. There would be no point in identifying a successor who couldn’t carry on his legacy.
How do the contenders stack up? I will address that throughout the week.