As I’ve noted before, the Hong Kong protesters remind me of characters from sixties existentialist movies; they know they will almost certainly be crushed in the end, but they continue to resist, because it ennobles them and affirms their humanity. It’s hopeless, but it’s inspiring, too.
So why is this happening, and where does it end? The answer to the second question almost certainly is, with blood. The protesters aren’t going to give up now, and the Chinese government has thrown down the gauntlet. The only real unknown is whether the Hong Kong security forces can be trusted to do the job, or whether it will be done by the PLA. My guess is the latter, but I could be wrong.
As to the attitude of the Chinese government, it is being shaped by a number of things. One of them is the belief that it has enough large financial centers, and no longer needs Hong Kong. Another is that the economic systems of the US and China are decoupling, so the bridge between the two will be increasingly useless. A third is the obvious intent of the Trump administration to make China a scapegoat for all of America’s problems. A fourth is concern about possible domestic political fallout from the pandemic. In the final analysis, however, the biggest factor is that the Chinese have come to believe that they can overcome any opposition in the rest of the world by threats of military force or, more often, by buying off their adversaries; softer forms of persuasion are no longer necessary. That’s a really bad sign for the future.