As we know, Trump won the 2016 election in spite of losing the popular vote by running the table in the swing states. How do the Democrats reverse that?
There are basically two ways to get to 270, assuming that Michigan will be flipped, as seems likely:
- WIN FLORIDA OR TEXAS: Trump is going to be in trouble in Florida, as Biden will appeal to the elderly population, and the economic and public health effects of the virus will be particularly horrendous. I’m much more skeptical about Texas, but it isn’t impossible.
- WIN TWO FAIRLY BIG SWING STATES: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina are in play. Biden has strong historic ties to Pennsylvania; I think that one is his best bet. The others could go either way.