Month: April 2020

Recent polls show Biden winning fewer young voters than Clinton, but far more of the elderly. The questions for today are:

1. Is that surprising?
2. Is the trade-off a positive or a negative for Biden?

The answer to the first question is no. The elderly, by and large, are looking for peace and security; Trump has given them constant chaos, a pandemic, and throwing grandma from the train to save the economy. In addition, Biden is an elderly white guy, so identity politics won’t be an issue this time. He would be wise to cultivate this cohort, particularly with a plan to strengthen Social Security, as much as possible.

As to the second question, it’s a positive, for two reasons. First, the elderly vote in larger numbers than the young; and second, they are distributed in a way that helps Biden with his Electoral College problem. Winning younger voters in blue states doesn’t produce electoral votes; flipping elderly voters in Florida, Arizona, and the Rust Belt does.

Electing Biden will return our relationship with Russia to a frosty normal. There will no longer be mixed signals sent from the White House. It will be all bad cop, all of the time.

Will Biden push the pendulum too far? After all, Putin is a problem, but he’s not the devil, and we have to do business with him on occasion. My guess is that the answer is no; Biden is an adult, and he’s used to dealing with the world as it is, not as he would have it be.

The Trump administration has two completely different approaches to Russia: Trump himself consistently sucks up to Putin, while the rest of his government treats the man as a dangerous adversary. Which thread would prevail in a second term?

That one is easy. The adults have long since fled the room, and Trump has debts to pay and scores to settle. I will be surprised if he doesn’t lift all of our Ukraine sanctions as quickly as possible. It will cause a furor, but, at that point, what will he have to lose?

We can take it for granted that Trump will run the most xenophobic, divisive, racist campaign in my lifetime, because that may actually be his best shot at winning under the current circumstances. That’s bad enough, but it’s only the beginning. You can expect Fox News to amplify his anti-Chinese message on a daily basis, and the internet is going to explode. Anyone who says or writes anything in any way measured about China is going to get pilloried by right-wing trolls. That’s the way it is in America today.

All we can do is hope that it doesn’t work.

For most Europeans, Biden’s election is like old home week. The US rejoins the Paris Agreement, starts talking to Iran again, and drops the obnoxious tariffs. The future of NATO is no longer in doubt. Virtually everyone breathes a sigh of relief.

The governments of Hungary and Poland are the exception. Biden makes it clear that he does not approve of illiberal democracy. Fortunately for them, he correctly views their situation as one primarily affecting the EU, not the US. Whether the EU finds a solution to the problem they present is the topic for a different day.

If there’s one thing we know for certain about Trump, it’s that he really, really hates the EU. Would he swallow his pride and anger and make nice with the Europeans for the overriding purpose of containing China after the November election? Or would he continue to maintain that the Europeans are just as bad as the Chinese, and double down on “America First?”

Given that the Trump campaign is going to be all about the yellow peril, you would think he would be compelled to pick the first option, but that isn’t necessarily the case. Trump believes that he can concurrently abuse the Europeans and demand their allegiance; all apparent contradictions dissolve in the face of his overwhelming awesomeness. The Europeans, of course, don’t see it that way. At the end of the second term, the EU may well be closer to China on trade issues than to us.

Mitch McConnell has no qualms about shoving hundreds of billions of dollars at businesses, because he knows an economic revival is essential to Trump’s re-election campaign, and because most of the recipients are loyal Republicans. He draws the line at state and local governments, however. Anti-government ideology, and disdain for blue states with high levels of service in particular, prevails over electoral pragmatism in this case.

He may well live to regret it. Exacerbating the economic problems in swing states like Florida and Ohio isn’t going to help Trump in November. Even Texas may need help, given the amazing decline in oil prices. And red state residents like having their garbage picked up and their roads repaired, too. Civil servants aren’t parasites; they’re service providers, and valuable ones at that. McConnell would be wise to remember that.

Barr has apparently answered my question. He reportedly indicated that the DOJ would consider getting involved on behalf of businesses objecting to quarantines. The basis for this would have to be the commerce clause.

Go for it, big boy! If the litigation is unsuccessful, it’s a finger in his eye, and Trump’s; if he somehow wins, it will give Biden, or some other future Democratic president, enhanced powers to implement a left-leaning agenda. It would split the GOP wide open. The Democrats can’t lose.

So how should Biden deal with the Chinese? It’s complicated. Here are some principles:

1. THIS AIN’T YOUR DADDY’S COLD WAR: As I’ve noted before, the Soviet Union presented an ideological and military challenge, while China is essentially an economic partner and rival. It’s a different situation that calls for a different response.
2. THERE’S NO GUARANTEE WE WILL WIN, EITHER: Don’t assume that we will prevail just because the Soviet Union imploded. This is not a morality play.
3. USE ALLIANCES: “America First” has played into the hands of the Chinese. Treat our erstwhile friends kindly and cooperate with them to apply pressure to the Chinese. Our greatest advantage over them is our cozier neighborhood; don’t blow it, like Trump.
4. BE FLEXIBLE, PRAGMATIC, AND REALISTIC: China isn’t going away. We need to try carrots as well as sticks. The ultimate objective is to reach an agreement on the rules of the game. For example, it is inevitable that China will gain more control over its coast; the real task is to make sure it doesn’t threaten Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan by creating a new chokepoint in the South China Sea.
5. COOPERATE WHERE NECESSARY AND POSSIBLE: As with the virus and climate change.
6. EMPHASIZE WHAT YOU CAN CONTROL, NOT WHAT YOU CAN’T: We’re not going to persuade the Chinese to change their regime and give up their dreams of moving upstream on technology. To the extent that is a threat to us, the correct response is to improve as a competitor, by attracting and cultivating more talent and by using subsidies for tech projects on occasion.
7. STAND UP FOR HUMAN RIGHTS: No more sucking up to Xi. On the other hand, it wouldn’t hurt to acknowledge the contributions of the Chinese people to world civilization from time to time.
8. GET RID OF THE STUPID TARIFFS: We should be trying to re-energize world trade institutions in a manner consistent with our values and interests, not to engage in mindless mercantilism that only hurts consumers and drives up costs.

No one, almost certainly including Donald Trump, knew how far he would press his ridiculous mercantilist ideas during his first term. Would he really demand fundamental changes in China, or would he apply tariffs briefly, win some illusory concessions, and declare victory? Your guess was as good as mine.

In the end, the answer was a muddle; Trump undoubtedly pushed the envelope with his tariffs, and did plenty of damage to both countries, but the situation never got completely out of control. Don’t expect that to continue in a second term. Having campaigned ferociously against the Chinese prior to November, and without any electoral accountability thereafter, he will be free to just let it rip. Relations between the two countries will become significantly worse. The trade war will intensify, the world will move towards spheres of influence, and some sort of a shooting war in the South China Sea is not out of the question.

The country is scarred and in no mood for an extended debate over M4A after Biden takes office in 2021. The pandemic and ensuing spike in unemployment has shown, however, that Americans need a viable alternative to employer-based insurance. The Biden budget consequently includes very large sums of money for public health and for more generous Obamacare subsidies. A watered-down version of the public option is also approved.

Unit price reduction, the other part of the health care equation, is impossible in light of the heroic efforts of the health care industry during the pandemic. Biden sees that quickly and doesn’t even try. The albatross of health care costs consequently gets even worse, but at least we have reached something close to universal care.

Having effectively beaten Obama in November, Trump will be eager to finish off his legacy by putting an end of Obamacare in 2021. To do so, however, he will have to deal with the GOP dissidents in the Senate, and there is the small matter of the virus to contend with, as well. Does he succeed?

It’s close, but the answer is yes. The left wing of the GOP, such as it is, is persuaded to take an axe to federal expenditures on health care in the name of austerity and deficit reduction. Congress turns Obamacare into a block grant, and millions of poor workers, many of them GOP voters, lose their insurance. Trump and the leadership rejoice. At long last, victory is theirs!

But what if Biden wins? What kind of a budget will we see in 2021?

It depends on whether the Democrats win the Senate or not. If they do, Biden and the Democratic leadership use reconciliation to approve massive new public health expenditures, a much higher minimum wage, and tax increases on the wealthy and corporations. If not, Mitch McConnell immediately returns to his 2009 playbook and starts screaming about spending and the deficit, and it becomes difficult just to keep the government open. The country limps forward, and any major efforts at restructuring await the 2022 election.

It’s January, 2021. Trump has just been re-elected, and the GOP controls both houses. What happens next, starting with the budget?

The Republicans tolerated a huge increase in public spending in response to the virus only because they knew it was necessary to hold on to power. With the election over, there is a dramatic shift in priorities. Trump argues that spending is out of control, and tax cuts and deregulation are essential to bring back American businesses. The new Congress, of course, agrees, so unemployment benefits and health care subsidies are slashed, along with payroll and capital gains taxes.

The economy continues to stagger, as consumer confidence is very low and the tax cuts don’t help, but who cares? The election is over! It’s time for our supporters to enjoy the fruits of victory! That’s the American way!

In the absence of live sports, I have been binge watching “The Tudors” on Netflix. The first few episodes of the third season are largely about the Pilgrimage of Grace. The Pilgrimage, for anyone who doesn’t already know, was a rising of a large segment of England’s rural north in the name of conservative values against the reforming establishment in London. The rebels, who wore pilgrim badges depicting the five wounds of Christ, demanded the restoration of their abbeys, the protection of what they considered to be the true religion, and the removal of ministers they considered to be heretics.

Does this ring any bells? Substitute MAGA hats for the pilgrim badges and you have “deplorable” Trump voters demanding that the swamp be drained.

The Pilgrimage ended badly; the rebels were tricked and defeated, and many of them were executed. Personally, I would gladly settle for just a Biden victory in November.